Feb 09, 2019
The adjective, “absolute” does not appear in front of the word majority in relation to the article on a no-confidence motion. The Chief Justice quoted from the very constitution to show that the judiciary cannot erase a member’s vote once it is cast. My opinion is inflexible – the government knew it lost the no-confidence motion and wants to stay on until the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) decides.
I predict that the Appeal Court is not going to grant a stay, but the government is going to repeat the theme – the status quo remains. My guess is that APNU+AFC will lose in the CCJ. Elections will not be called after this. GECOM will take months before we go to the poll. I predict an election between September and October.
As we prepare for a general poll, the AFC is going to become more aggressive, unethical and rabid. This transformation will be to please the PNC. The AFC knows its survival depends on the generosity of the PNC. The AFC thinks that if it displays hard attitudes and uses pugnacious language, these will cement its relation with the PNC. The AFC also thinks it can blindside the PNC.
I am guessing and willing to be bet that there is not going to be any document whatsoever on power-sharing drafted before the elections, between the PNC and AFC. The Cummingsburg Accord expired in May last year, and there will be no feeling on the part of any PNC leader to renew it. I can say with almost a hundred percent accuracy, no stalwart that sits in PNC’s hierarchy will argue for a continuation of the contents of the Cummingsburg Accord.
Moses Nagamootoo and Khemraj Ramjattan are dreaming. The PNC will not, even with an ephemeral thought flying through the mind of its collective leadership, offer the PM slot to Ramjattan or Nagamootoo. I predict there will be a fight within the AFC between Trotman and Ramjattan over Nagamootoo’s willingness to run back as PM and Ramjattan’s desire to have the nomination.
I am surmising that in the March congress of the AFC, Ramjattan will be nominated and Nagamootoo, sensing he will lose, will withdraw. But the PNC will not go into the election with Ramjattan as the PM candidate.
My prediction is that the PNC will look for a credible East Indian. If it cannot find such a man or woman, it will likely go with another ethnic pick or a mixed race person. I believe the PNC will look at figures like Stanley Ming, if it cannot find an East Indian. If the other ethnic choices decline, the PNC will go with an African candidate as prime minister. PNC leaders at home and in the diaspora have made up their minds – the AFC should not get the PM slot.
No matter what happens in the country or the diaspora from PPP supporters, Irfaan Ali will remain the PPP’s presidential point man. The three new parties – the Amerindian-oriented entity (LJP), ANUG and Federal United in Berbice – will rise and consolidate themselves. This will bring fear and trepidation to both of the ancient sea monsters from Greek mythology – the PPP and PNC.
I predict Charrandass Persaud will not come back for the elections, even though he told me he would. My guess is when asked why he is not involved in the election campaign, Charrandass will say that he fears the vendetta mentality that will be out to get him and he will either be arrested or killed. My advice to those who think Charrandass is their hero, and want to see him in the thick of things, is not to disappoint themselves. He will not be in Guyana for the elections
I am saying with firmness of conviction that NCN and the Chronicle will look like party-owned media outfits when the election season starts. I believe it is going to be worse than when they were under the control of the PPP regime. My prediction is that the Chronicle will get nasty and poisonous and go after all three of the new parties, renewing its obsession with Lenox Shuman of the Amerindian party. No one in APNU+AFC will give a damn about the party-controlled media. They will say the PPP did it when it was in power, and they should do it too.